Josh Harmatz asked:


At the end of the dot com bust, we saw money-hungry investors worldwide thirsty for more. Their new fix came via mortgage-backed securities (MBS), lots of home loans, and the proceeding hangover is still lingering.

Rise of Home Loan Lending

The influx of money into the United States from the rising economies in Asia and oil-producing countries combined with low interest rates in the U.S. contributed to good credit conditions from 2002 to 2004, which created housing and credit bubbles.

The credit conditions were so favorable that there has been a significant increase in home ownership rate—from 64 percent in 1994 to 69.2 percent in 2004. The major contributor to the increase was the rise in subprime lending, a financial term that involves financial institutions extending credits to borrowers who did not qualify for loans at the prime rate. Subprime lending caused housing prices to increase. In fact, between 1997 and 2006, the price of a typical American house increased by 124 percent.

As home ownership rate rose, so did mortgage-backed securities. MBSs are debt obligations that represent claims to cash flows from mortgage loans, most commonly on residential properties. Simply put, MBSs get their value from mortgage payments and housing prices. Because of the housing and credit booms, institutions and investors worldwide invested in the U.S. housing market.

Homeowners were refinancing their homes at lower interest rates. Taking advantage of the appreciation in housing prices, some homeowners resorted to financing consumer spending by taking out second mortgages. What can be concluded from this pattern is that consumers were borrowing and spending more yet saving less, thereby increasing household debt from $705 billion at the end of 1974 to $7.4 trillion at the end of 2000, to $14.5 trillion in the middle of 2008.

The financial system enjoyed the housing boom for a while, but not for long.

Fall of Home Loan Lending

Housing prices began declining in the middle of 2006. As a result, the same institutions and investors that invested heavily in MBS suffered significant losses. Overall, the losses suffered worldwide are estimated to be trillions of U.S. dollars.

The housing crisis is greatly affecting Americans. President Obama said that it is “unraveling homeownership, the middle class, and the American Dream itself.”

One of the causes of the decline in housing prices is that policymakers did not recognize the fact that financial institutions (such as investment banks and hedge funds) are increasingly becoming important in the financial system. These institutions were not subject to regulations that cover commercial banks. Hence, they were not able to protect themselves from MBS losses. These losses affected their ability to lend, thereby slowing economic activity.

Others proposed the following causes:

- inability of homeowners to pay their mortgage, attributed mainly to the resetting of adjustable-rate mortgages

- borrowers overextending

- predatory lending

- speculation and overbuilding during the boom period

- risky mortgage products

- high personal and corporate debt levels

- financial products that distributed and perhaps concealed the risk of mortgage default

- monetary policy

- international trade imbalances

- government regulation (or the lack thereof)

An interesting thing to note is that the predatory lending practices of mortgage brokers are cited as one of the more important causes of the crisis.

Because of this ongoing crisis, many homeowners lost their homes and investments, and homes for sale are significantly increasing.

The Future

The future of the housing market is still obscure. However, the deteriorating housing market prompted central banks around the world to cut interest rates and governments to implement economic stimulus packages to prevent any more damage to the bigger economy.

To address this crisis, some leaders in developing countries met in November 2008 and March 2009 to find solutions. As of April 2009, however, many of the root causes of the crisis had yet to be addressed. Government officials, central bankers, economists, and business executives have proposed solutions, while various agencies and regulators have taken additional steps to best handle the crisis.

President Obama and his key advisors, on the other hand, introduced a series of regulatory proposals in June 2009, but the proposals have yet to be implemented. Whether it will work or not, only time will tell.



ERNESTO

Neil Ebsworth asked:


The Federal Reserves latest cut in its prime rate by three-quarters of a percentage point may do little to assist home owners across the country who have built in fixed rate mortgages. It will however add stimulus to first time borrowers as interest rates start to reflect in some of the lowest mortgage rate products for several years. The reduction in the prime rate which now stands at 2.25% will also put further pressure on the dollar, weakening it against the major world currencies specifically the Euro, which has been gaining in strength almost as quickly as the dollar has been falling.

There are several repercussions to a weaker dollar, not least the resulting rise in the price of oil. US households already struggling with higher gas prices have been economizing in their spending patterns. It is this cutting back that has fueled speculation that the US economy is heading into a recession. A recession, that many believe has already arrived. But with the definition of a recession being at least two concurrent quarters of negative growth and the last figures released for the final quarter of 2007 showing 0.6% growth, it may be more realistic to paraphrase Mark Twain, that in relation to the economy, ” Reports of its death may have been over-exaggerated”. The dramatic fall in growth from 4.9% in the previous quarter cannot however be ignored, and if the downward trend continues at the same rate, then a recession may be declared by mid-June.

To rescue the economy, or for the cynically minded, to rescue the republican candidate, John McCain in Novembers election, a stimulus package including up to an $800 tax rebate will take effect in April. The package is supposed to boost consumer spending but the overall effect maybe solely to allow the administration the breathing space it needs to delay announcing that the economy, has in fact gone into recession. The influx of $1.5 trillion dollars into the economy should be enough to keep the statistics in the positive for at least a quarter leaving room for the administration to declare that by definition, the country is not suffering from the big R.

Like most things though, with every economic cycle there will be winners as well as losers. Whilst many of us whine about higher gas prices, food prices and energy costs, the lowest interest rates for nearly a generation will allow some to enter the housing market at a time when locking in their finance may stand them in good stead for the next twenty years.

When Donald Trump is quoted as saying that there are plenty of excellent investment opportunities available in the current real estate market, it is worth taking note. This aside, homeowners who can afford to, may also be attracted into the mortgage refinance market. With interest rates so low, the closing costs of refinancing a home loan in relation to the long term benefits of a fixed home loan at such low rates, now makes refinancing a serious option.

The problem that you may still have to be overcome in refinancing your mortgage is finding a suitable lender willing to loan money depending on your credit status. Mortgage lenders who have been seriously hurt by the sub-prime crisis and are finding it increasingly difficult to raise funds on the secondary market leaving less funds available to lend as mortgage finance. The result of this being, lenders have tightened the criteria for loans. Funds have been so scarce that the Federal Reserve has had to inject billions of dollars into the system just to keep the cash flowing around the market. This liquidity issue means that whilst interest rates may be favorable, finding the funds to borrow may need some serious leg work.

Whatever your circumstances, the economic road ahead may be rocky. If you are able to find cheap mortgage finance or refinance and take advantage of the current situation whilst interest rates are low, you may just emerge down that road in a stronger position.

In todays uncertain times, that would be a good result by any standard.



HARRIS